New York State In-depth

College Basketball Odds, Tips, Prediction for UNC vs. Syracuse

Odds between North Carolina and Syracuse

When Roy Williams coached North Carolina, his teams often had a huge rebound and transition advantage, beating Syracuse’s 2-3 zone. Williams is gone now, and Tuesday marks the second meeting between these Hubert Davis Tar Heels and Jim Boeheim after Syracuse took Carolina into overtime at Chapel Hill last season.

North Carolina clinched a rivalry win over North Carolina State last weekend and there are signs the Tar Heels could figure out some of their troubles earlier in the season. They have now won three conference games in a row. Even so, the Tar Heels are only 2-6 in road games this season.

Once again, Syracuse doesn’t look like an NCAA tournament team because they perform poorly outside of the conference. Still, they have exceeded expectations in conference play so far and are showing development as one of Böheim’s youngest teams. The Orange was competitive in Virginia and Miami, handling Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

North Carolina’s perimeter problems and so-so splits against zones provide value for the Orange at home on Tuesday.

North Carolina shot the ball really well from the perimeter last season, but there certainly was some air in those numbers this season, and it’s rebounded from beyond the arc. The Tar Heels lost to Brady Manek, a 40% 3 point shooter. RJ Davis is still an excellent perimeter shooter, but Caleb Love still makes mediocre shots and doesn’t do much of it.

Love shot a respectable 36% last season, but the year before he shot just 26% and has fallen to 27% this season. I don’t think Carolina’s true depth shooting percentage as a team is 31.6%, but ShotQuality says the heels are outside the top 200 in off-the-dribbling and spot-up shooting. The expected true shot fraction is only 32%.

Pete Nance should be Manek’s replacement on this offense, but he’s not doing nearly enough to score from the perimeter to limit the zone. Manek had 22 points and three 3s in play last season, otherwise Carolina would have lost to that zone.

Unless you can consistently get open perimeter looks against Syracuse, it’s difficult to score on the perimeter without offensive rebounds.

The Tar Heels have seen Zone with a decent clip this year and haven’t fared nearly well against it compared to their man numbers. According to Synergy, the Tar Heels rank 71st percentile offensively when facing Zone and 87th percentile against Mann. Since Carolina has so many of the same players, you can use last year’s sample as well. Carolina also did better against Mann last year.

Syracuse’s offense doesn’t run out in transition, but could have a big hit against a poor Tar Heels defensive transition unit. The Heels rank in the ninth percentile for transitional defense, according to Synergy, and Syracuse is top 100 in shot quality when it ups the pace in halffield.

The biggest question for the Orange all season on offense has been which Joe Girard will emerge. He’s had a handful of bad games in non-conference, but he’s returned to his dynamic scoring self in the league. Girard has turned 38% from 3 this season and has at least 20 points in six of the nine conference games.

Syracuse won’t give up many transition opportunities to Carolina because it doesn’t turn the ball around much at all. The orange should also be able to get Girard a lot of 3 looks. Tar Heels’ perimeter defenses and even mid-range defenses don’t perform well based on ShotQuality. They’re one of the worst midrange defenses in the nation and only average against the dribble 3s, where Girard does most of his damage.

The matchup is solid for Girard and this Syracuse offense. Add in how much UNC relies on getting to the free-throw line against a Syracuse defense that doesn’t foul much due to the zone, and this game should be closer to a toss-up than the line suggests.

North Carolina vs. Syracuse Betting Tip

North Carolina’s offense is heavily dependent on post-ups by Armando Bacot and pick-and-rolls by the two excellent playmaking guards. The Tar Heels don’t have a natural player sitting at the high post, and while Bacot will surely dominate on offensive glass, Carolina won’t be able to live at the line either.

There are still a lot of holes in this Carolina defense, including the ball screen defense. Syracuse will use plenty of off-ball screens to create downhill opportunities for Girard and his other young playmakers. Carolina performs poorly in transition defense and is mediocre in ball screen defense.

Carolina won’t get enough stops en route to cover a multi-possession spread. While the old Carolina might have dominated the glass, this one is built to do just that. I would put Syracuse at +4 or better.

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