Virginia vs Syracuse Odds
The Virginia Cavaliers will continue to chase Clemson at the top of the ACC standings as they travel to New York to take on a Syracuse-based team that is having a year of ups and downs.
Virginia has compiled a six-game winning streak in ACC play, putting them two games behind a 10-1 Clemson team. Senior Armaan Franklin has fueled the Cavaliers’ offense at this stretch, averaging 17.7 points per game.
On the other hand, Syracuse is trying to recover from back-to-back losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech.
In the first encounter between these two, Virginia flared the orange from deep shooting 46% from the perimeter for a total of 12 three-pointers made.
To find out if this offensive production will continue for Virginia, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Virginia vs. Syracuse.
The Virginia Cavaliers continue to roll through the ACC on the back of their methodical offense and elite defensive production. Virginia ranks in the top-25 in adjusted efficiency at both ends of the rank.
On offense, the Cavaliers were catalyzed by their ability to connect from the touchline. Virginia has the 21st-highest 3-point percentage in the county, connecting 38.2% of its outside shots.
That outside shooting was fully showcased in their first duel with a Syracuse zone defense, scoring 40.7% of their opponent’s points from outside the arc. The Cavaliers threw up 12 3-point wins on their way to a seven-point win.
In this second matchup, I expect those outside shot counts to regress. Overall, Syracuse only allows teams to shoot 34.6% from the 3-point line, a 6.1% difference from what Virginia was able to achieve at the first meeting.
Virginia’s first encounter with the Oranges was a perfect throwback point as the Cavaliers had just lost en route to Pittsburgh the night before. The same level of urgency will not exist when they travel to Syracuse.
Syracuse’s offense was based around taking care of the basketball and finding high-percentage shots. The Orange have a steal percentage of just 6.3%, the 13th lowest rate in the country, and an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%.
Again, this is an area I’m looking for the first matchup with Virginia to push the Orange forward. Syracuse had 16 total turnovers in the first meeting, 4.3 above the season average.
Additionally, this is a Syracuse team that can unmask Virginia in one of the few areas where they have struggled defensively. The Cavaliers give up 35.7% of their points from beyond the arc by allowing teams to shoot 34.6% from that distance.
Though Syracuse hasn’t relied on their outside shooting to fuel their offense, they have hit from three-point range on 37.1% of their attempts, the 39th-highest rate in the country. If Virginia continues to give up open views from 3, I expect Syracuse will benefit.
Virginia vs. Syracuse Betting Tip
Although Syracuse didn’t get the results they wanted in the ACC game, they still managed to hold their own against the league’s best. Three of Syracuse’s five conference losses have been four points or less. This includes games against Miami and North Carolina.
In the Orange’s first game against Virginia, they ran into a buzz saw as the Cavaliers attempted to hit back at home in a game that made head coach Tony Bennett the all-time winning leader in Virginia basketball history.
This time around, I expect Syracuse to continue its trend of keeping games tight against superior competition. The Orange will accomplish this by capitalizing on the high-percentage shots Virginia is giving them from the perimeter and taking care of the basketball.
That being said, Syracuse has value as a home underdog in a likely low score.
Tip: Syracuse +5 or better
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