Odds between Syracuse and Virginia
Virginia started the 2022-23 season 8-0 with several impressive wins in non-conference games, but the Cavaliers have stuttered in league play with losses in Miami and Pittsburgh.
The Cavaliers took a 10-point lead against the Hurricanes in the first half. Against the Panthers, the Hoos gave away a double-digit lead in the first half to lose by three.
Schedule strength plays a big part in that, but the Orange are 3-1 in the ACC and have quietly won seven of their last eight games since an embarrassing 29-point loss to Illinois in early December.
Those two programs have played a string of thrillers since the Orange joined the ACC, but Virginia, as a double-figure home favorite, expects a comfortable setback win.
However, there are paths to success for both offenses in the underlying numbers and that could lead to more points than the market is expecting with a total of 120.
Syracuse’s offense lost a lot of power compared to last season, including most of the elite shooting that had made it a top 30 offense in terms of efficiency.
But some keys remain. Joe Girard, for all his defensive errors, is still a great scorer and someone with plenty of experience shooting over Virginia’s pack line defense.
The Orange struggle with teams that use a lot of ball pressure to disrupt their offensive rhythm, but Virginia isn’t that team. Syracuse won’t turn the ball over, a key key to preventing Virginia from completely choking the game and pinning it in halffield.
Syracuse has three players shooting at least 36% from beyond the arc, and most of the time the Orange’s offense held up against Tony Bennett’s defense.
There have been exceptions, but in the last three seasons scoring hasn’t been the problem for the Orange against this UVA defence. Syracuse runs most of its offense through ball sieves and cuts, and Virginia has surprisingly performed poorly defensively there this season.
The problem for Syracuse in this matchup was defense. Bennett often put Kihei Clark in the heart of the 2-3 zone and shared the ground with shooters.
The Cavaliers are an elite zone attack this year, and the Orange’s defense remains outside the top 100 in terms of efficiency.
Virginia doesn’t put a lot of effort into offensive rebounds, prioritizing preventing transition opportunities. But with the Orange Zone being one of the worst defensive rebound teams in the country, the Cavaliers could still get a few second chance looks.
Given how poorly Syracuse’s full-back is performing, Virginia’s offense should be able to pull off almost any look it desires.
The Cavaliers saw a lot of Zone last year and didn’t really have the shooters to consistently beat that Zone. They were underperforming in zone offense and still beat Syracuse in the carrier dome by 1.17 points per possession that game.
Virginia now has more perimeter shooting, however, and that will make it harder for teams to zone the Cavaliers. According to Synergy, they’re already seeing a lot less Zone this year than last year. But when a team plays Syracuse, they will only see Zone.
Virginia was excellent against zone looks and ranks in the 89th percentile for spot up jumper efficiency. Clark will have no problem pushing into the center of the zone and finding shooters to take advantage of Syracuse on Saturday.
The Cavaliers usually try to put Clark and Reece Beekman in a lot of pick-and-roll situations, but it hasn’t really been effective this season.
Opponents can’t really beat the orange with ball filters, so it might actually be better for the Cavaliers to move away from ball filters and focus on cutting and shooting from the perimeter.
Syracuse vs. Virginia Betting Tip
Virginia’s improved 3-point shooting and the Cavaliers’ mediocre saves this season offer opportunities for both offenses to succeed in this duel.
The Orange will try to pick up the pace as much as possible and betting on Virginia overs is not for the faint of heart. But the total is a bit more deflated than it should be given the two offensive advantages.
This isn’t last season’s Virginia who couldn’t shoot over the zone. I’m expecting solid efficiency for this offense, which has torn up so-so Syracuse zones in the recent past.
The Orange’s defense has improved in recent weeks, but Virginia is a much tougher test offensively. I would bet the over at 129 or better.
Selection: Over 127 (game to 129)
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