Once Upon a Time in Las Vegas – Division Round
In perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the NFL’s Divisional Playoff weekend, the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Buffalo to face the Bills for AFC Championship game rights. The Bengals advanced to the divisional round with a 24-17 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The Bills, meanwhile, ousted a lively Dolphins team 34-31 on Sunday afternoon. The opening kickoff for this exciting AFC divisions matchup is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. EST.
Take the next step
The Cincinnati Bengals are back on familiar territory, advancing to the divisional round of the AFC Playoffs for the second straight season. The Bengals will take a second shot at a Bills team that finished just half a game ahead of them after Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered an unfortunate health damage three weeks ago. Luckily, Hamlin seems to be on the fast track to recovery, so this game can be all about football. Already an underdog in the game, the Bengals have an extra chip on their shoulder as the defending AFC champion is rarely mentioned in the same breath as AFC favorites Buffalo and Kansas City.
“I don’t think you’re going to find a lot of people who feel like we’ve been mentioned very often with those teams,” Bengals OC Brian Callahan said. “I’m sure our boys have that chip on their shoulders. We always knew how good we could be.”
The Bengals struggled last week as heavy favorites against division rivals Baltimore, again without star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Quarterback Joe Burrow went 23 of 32 for just 209 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for a point in a narrow win. The game turned when Baltimore fumbled at the Cincinnati one-yard line and DE Sam Hubbard rushed 99 yards to the winning score. Burrow was sacked four times in the game and the Bengals rushed just 51 yards.
Hubbard-Yard Dash or Fumble in the Jungle? The trio discuss the touchdown that will live on in Bengal history forever.
Who Dey Talks | @PaycorInc pic.twitter.com/5Mfaml0nXX
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 19, 2023
Bengals quarterback Burrow will likely play behind a patchwork offensive line again. He’ll likely have three reserve linemen protecting him this week, and left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa are still recovering from injuries. Still, the Bengals’ offense shouldn’t be taken lightly. Cincinnati ranked 7th in the NFL in points per game this season. They could try leaning more on a running game that only ranks No. 29 in the NFL, but could potentially be crucial in giving Burrow more time in the bag. Cincinnati is also 7th in the NFL in passing offense and excelled in the red zone and ranked 5th in converting red zone opportunities to touchdowns. Defensively, the Bengals were one of the most underrated teams in the league. Cincinnati is 6th in goal defense this season and they are giving up two points a game in their last three games. They are 9th against run and 23rd against pass of the season. The Bengals were also excellent defensively in the red zone. They’re fifth in the league at keeping teams out of the end zone on red-zone opportunities. The Bengals have also protected football and are fifth in the league in terms of turnover difference.
Major Injuries: OL Williams and Cappa are likely to be out again this week. CB Tre Flowers has a hamstring problem which could be a problem if he is unable to walk on Sunday.
One win away
The Buffalo Bills are now one win away from the matchup that many people thought was inevitable earlier in the season. In 2021, the Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game away from home. In 2022, the Bills lost again to the Chiefs in an overtime thriller in the divisional round. If both teams go about business this week, they will meet in Atlanta for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Before that, however, the Bills must dethrone the reigning AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.
“I think the guys that we have in this locker room, the experienced leadership that we have — you know, even having Miller in the locker room, just being able to talk to guys,” Quarterback said Josh Allen. “It’s so tremendous for what it does to our psyche and our mental approach to the game.”
Last week, the Bills were heavy favorites against a Miami team that was down to a third-row rookie quarterback. However, after taking a 17-0 lead, the Bills engaged in a dogfight before prevailing 34-31. Allen finished the game on 23 of 39 for 352 yards and three touchdowns. Allen also threw two interceptions and fumbled, which led directly to points for the Dolphins. Luckily, the Bills were able to force two Dolphins in-game turnovers and survived, one step closer to their goal. The Bills nearly doubled the Dolphins with 423 total yards compared to 231 for Miami.
Maine brought the baton. 😈
Watch @DDawkins66 and @Maine_Savage23 mic on our wildcard win: https://t.co/qnITpu0xwe pic.twitter.com/fS4sObsd5m
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 19, 2023
The Bills were close to the top of the league in several categories throughout the season. While their offense gets a lot of attention, Bill’s defense was almost as tough. Buffalo is third in the NFL in points allowed per game. The Bills are fourth against the run and 13th against the pass this season. In the red zone, the Bills are second in the NFL at keeping opposition out of the end zone. The Bills’ offense also played its part. Buffalo is second in the NFL in points per game while ranking eighth in rushing and fifth in passing. The Bills offense ranks 9th in the NFL for converting red-zone chances into touchdowns.
Key injuries: S Jordan Poyer missed practice time (knee) this week but is expected to leave on Sunday.
Best bets for this game
Full Game Side Bet
Insider Status:
Valuation:
The Bengals have been overlooked for most of the season so it’s not surprising to see them as underdogs here. The lead in points is surprising. Looking at the two quarterbacks in the last few games makes me gravitate toward the Bengals. Burrow has thrown for a 70% completion rate in his last three games and has five touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He protected the ball against Baltimore last week and avoided any interceptions. However, Allen has struggled with turnovers in his last three games. Allen completes just 59% of his passes during that span while throwing eight touchdowns and five interceptions. On the season, Buffalo ranks only 15th in the NFL revenue spread while the Bengals are a solid fifth. While the Bengals offensive line issues are a concern, Burrow has experience dealing with such issues. Watch out for running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine for plenty of quick looks from the backfield to protect Burrow. Allen is healthier than he has been since the start of the season but is struggling with turnovers. He now faces a Bengals defense that has had 10 sacks in their last three games. In many ways this game is a tossup and I wouldn’t be shocked if it went into overtime. I’m watching a field goal game.
Take Cincinnati +5.5
Forecast: Cincinnati +5.5
Overall selection for the entire game
Insider Status:
Valuation:
Both teams are in the top 10 in the NFL in points per game. The Bengals are 7th in the league and the Bills check in 2nd. Both teams are also very good in the red zone, with the Bengals leading the two teams in fifth place in the NFL. Turnovers could also result in points in this matchup, especially as the Bills turn the ball faster and faster on the stretch. The Bills are 4-0 in their last four playoff games and 4-0 overall in their last four games. I think Buffalo will probably catch up in a close game, so they need to pick up points along the way. This won’t be a full-fledged shootout, but I can see it creeping past the total.
Apply, 50 points.
Prediction: Over 50
Written by
Mark Ruelle, “Mark Ruelle”
Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid supporter of sports analysis and has been using it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. With degrees in Marketing, Broadcasting and English, he uses this wide array of resources to dissect and analyze fixtures. Mark will provide you with a variety of stats to consider and a strong opinion on every matchup he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all major matches.
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